Why 2021 will be the best bitcoin year yet

Why 2021 will be the best bitcoin year yet

Bitcoin has had an explosive breakthrough year as a mature financial asset. The cryptocurrency is finally being considered by institutional investors for the first time in a year that will go down in history for unprecedented money printing.

The asset’s hard-coded digital scarcity is a primary driver of its boom and bust cycles, and in the year of Bitcoin Millionaire after each block reward halves, magic happens. With the new year just around the corner, here’s a look back at past crypto market cycles to get a glimpse of what to expect from Bitcoin in 2021.

A look back at historical Bitcoin market cycles

All markets are cyclical and go through different phases of bear and bull trends. These cycles can span decades or a handful of years.

With cryptocurrencies, cycles often move faster than with traditional assets because the market is active around the clock. But since Bitcoin is only a little over a decade old, there are only a few boom and bust cycles from which to read useful data.

Technically, a new bull market starts when Bitcoin breaks through its previous all-time high.

Basically, this happens every four years after the asset’s block rewards are halved. This built-in mechanism halves the supply of BTC at a time when demand begins to rise again.

The combined effect of suddenly reduced supply and rising demand upsets the balance of buying and selling so much that the price rises exponentially.

The year 2020 was an ideal example of the impact each halving can have on the market. Bitcoin went from a „fad“ to a full-blown FOMO in less than nine months – all because supply and demand are so conducive to a positive return.

And while 2020 was definitely a breakout year for a bullish Bitcoin, it is the next year that will create a new wave of Bitcoin billionaires.

Why 2021 will be the best year for bitcoin

Looking at the chart above, it’s shocking how high Bitcoin has climbed in twelve years. In the twelve years, the cryptocurrency has seen three significant halves, with the reward miners receive being cut from 50 to 25 BTC, then from 25 to 12.5 BTC, and finally to the current 6.25 BTC.

Each time this happens, demand begins to outweigh limited supply so dramatically that the asset value rises parabolically and increases exponentially.

In the two recorded years after halving, the first resulted in a return of well over 6,000% and the second in a return of just under 2,000%. What could 2021 bring to crypto investors?

Another 2,000-6,000% return is not likely, simply due to the law of diminishing returns, however even a 400% increase from current levels would result in a price of $125,000 per BTC.

Volume de Comércio de Bitcoin Tanchado em outubro

Volume de Comércio de Bitcoin Tanchado em outubro. Eis o porquê

O volume de comércio de bitcoin nas principais bolsas do mundo caiu quase 18% em outubro. Os analistas financeiros têm algumas idéias sobre o porquê

  • O volume comercial nas bolsas criptográficas de topo afundou no mês passado.
  • O volume de comércio de criptografia nas bolsas de Binance caiu 33,1%, por exemplo.
  • Os analistas dizem que a relativa falta de volatilidade dos preços de Bitcoin é uma das várias razões potenciais.

Um relatório publicado hoje pela Crypto Compare mostra que o volume de negociação de moedas criptográficas caiu 17,6% no mês passado, uma surpresa para aqueles que pensavam que a semana passada só trouxe boas notícias para a criptografia.

Mas a CryptoCompare relatou grandes diminuições nos volumes globais de negociação à vista para bolsas que a empresa de pesquisa de mercado considera apresentar números precisos.

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A negociação no Binance atingiu US$ 75,7 bilhões, 33,1% a menos em comparação com o mês anterior. A Huobi Global registrou volumes de US$ 41,7 bilhões, uma queda de 31,4%.

Os volumes na OKEx, que no mês passado suspendeu as retiradas depois que a polícia prendeu seu co-fundador, caíram em 42%. O Coinbase caiu 17,5% para US$ 11,3 bilhões, o Kraken caiu 13% para US$ 6,5 bilhões e o Liquid caiu 4,3% para US$ 6,1 bilhões.

Pedro Febrero, um analista da Quantum Economics, disse à Decrypt que há duas razões possíveis para a queda.

„Primeiro, parece que um número crescente de moedas está sendo HODLed“, disse ele. Febrero apontou o número crescente de endereços ativos de Bitcoin, que mostram como „tem havido muita atividade“, e o valor médio da transação aumentou também no mês passado. „Ambas as métricas mostram que os usuários estão de fato usando BTC, mas não estão enviando para as trocas“, disse ele.

Constantine Tsavliris, porta-voz da CryptoCompare, contou a Decrypt uma história semelhante. „A maior volatilidade em setembro e o declínio da Bitcoin de $12.000 para $10.000 geraram um volume de negócios significativo. Em outubro, houve um comício quase ininterrupto e esta falta de inversão de preços e volatilidade levou a um declínio nos volumes mês a mês“, disse ele.

A segunda razão de Febrero: os comerciantes estão travando em Bitcoin na bolsa descentralizada Uniswap, provavelmente para aproveitar ao máximo as taxas de liquidez oferecidas pelo protocolo ou para negociar na bolsa (usando representações sintéticas de Bitcoin compatíveis com a bolsa baseada em Ethereum).

De acordo com as métricas do site DeFi Pulse, a quantidade total de Bitcoin trancado na Uniswap aumentou nos últimos 30 dias de 24.000 Bitcoin para 30.000 Bitcoin.

„O que isto mostra é uma continuação da tendência anual de que cada vez mais usuários estão mudando de [trocas centralizadas, como Binance] para [trocas descentralizadas, como Uniswap]“, disse Febrero.

De fato, durante o verão, o volume diário de trocas da Uniswap uma vez superou o da Coinbase Pro. Os volumes caíram 18% no último mês, de acordo com um painel na Dune Analytics, mas os volumes ainda são muito mais altos do que antes do início da corrida de touro deste verão.

Starbucks and McDonald: No tests for digital yuan

Starbucks and McDonald’s are not to test the CBDC of China after all, it is reported.

American fast food giants, such as Starbucks and McDonald’s, are not to participate in the ongoing tests for the digital yuan in China.

According to a report by the news agency Sina Finance on 14 October, the digital currency of the Chinese Central Bank (CBDC) is still being tested on a „small scale“, especially in retail and catering.

A number of foreign traders, who were believed to be participating in China’s CBDC tests, have so far not even used the digital yuan as a means of payment.

In Xiong’an, one of the major Chinese cities testing the digital yuan, 19 companies are reported to have participated in their CBDC pilot project. Among them were Starbucks, McDonald’s, Subway and the cloud project of UnionPay Unmanned Automated Supermarket.

However, according to Sina Finance, none of these companies Bitcoin Trader software has participated in the digital Yuan tests so far and only accepts digital payments via WeChat, Alipay and QuickPass.

None of the companies has made official statements about tests for the digital yuan. Cointelegraph asked Starbucks and McDonald’s for comments, but received no response by the deadline.

The Chinese authorities launched the first digital yuan tests in April 2020. On 5 October, the Chinese central bank announced that wallets linked to the currency had settled USD 162 million of transactions between April and August 2020. In order to promote the currency, the central bank organised a lottery for $1.5 million. 2 million people are reported to have taken part in the lottery at 3,000 participating traders.

Delta Time F1 players can now stake with NFT tokens

Blockchain game company, Animoca Brands, launched the staking for the non-expendable tokens (NFT) collection that appear in their F1 Delta Time game.

Stakers can earn weekly interest in their NFTs in the form of REVV tokens. REVV also consists of a utility token that can be used to pay for participation in the game’s main time trial and Grand Prix modes.

Reviewing the Blockchain and the world of crypto games, one click at a time

Animoca also plans, at the end of this year, to add support for REVV as a means of payment to buy NFT. The game’s NFTs include unique racing vehicles, drivers, car components, driver equipment, or tires that players can own.

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Animoca Brands CEO Yat Siu noted that „there is no traditional token sale currently taking place for REVV,“ emphasizing that REVV tokens can only be obtained through F1 Delta Time NFT token staking.

„The goal is to establish the token’s true utility first through its use in F1 Delta Time. Beyond that, we will look to add it to an exchange along with expanding REVV support through the release of additional games, such as the MotoGP game.

Siu said that NFT staking was introduced to allow holders to earn dividends on their tokens, and to encourage „cross-pollination“ in both the NFT and crypto communities.

„The general audience of the crypt receives for the first time the potential value of the TFN, and the TFN audience is given a gateway to the expendable tokens,“ said Siu.

The new „Doctor Who“ game will allow you to collect non-expendable tokens from the
F1 Delta Time receives one sixth of the supply

F1 Delta Time will be allocated 500 million of the three billion REVV tokens, and the tokens will be divided into four groups for the game.

The first round of staking will be 6.02 million REVV distributed over 12 weeks, with weekly payments gradually decreasing as an incentive to reward the first stakers. Total weekly rewards will be reduced from 700,000 to 332,500 tokens over the 12-week period.

Staking rewards will also vary based on the rarity of the NFTs used by users. 200 million tokens were earmarked for „a reserve fund that can be injected into other funds as F1 Delta Time grows“ while about 274 million tokens will be distributed as rewards to players.

Animoca Brands targets players outside of Bitcoin System crypto space by developing games from major brands
20 million tokens have been designated for marketing and promotional purposes, including the dispersal of airdrops to verified account holders and „box“ sale participants.

However, it is still early days, as the F1 Delta Time user base currently comprises some 4,000 player accounts and 470 NFT holders.

Bitcoin spadł do $9,050 po Stock Market Tumble: Friday Price Watch

Coronavirus śmierci fala na Florydzie prowadzi do strat na rynkach akcji. Bitcoin podążył za ruchem w dół.

Bitcoin i większość altcoin zostały wycofane nieco w ciągu ostatnich 24 godzin, po kilku dniach zysków. Co ciekawe, podobne spadki cen są widoczne na tradycyjnych rynkach akcji, ponieważ Dow Jones spadł o 1,4%.

Fałszywy wybuch Bitcoin’s False Breakout
Po nieudanej próbie podbicia $9,500, Bitcoin zawisł powyżej znaczącego poziomu 50-MA na $9,300. Jednak podstawowa krypto waluta ześlizgnęła się pod nią z 9.440$ do obecnej pozycji na poziomie 9.150$ w kilku godzinnych świecach. Na niektórych giełdach, takich jak Bitstamp, BTC spadło aż do 9.050 dolarów.

BTCUSD 5m. Źródło: TradingView

Podczas wzrostu do prawie 9.500 dolarów wzrosły spekulacje, że wieloryby BTC manipulowały ceną, aby stworzyć wolumen do składania dużych zleceń sprzedaży i zmniejszyć poślizg. Ostatecznym celem jest, aby handlowcy detaliczni zaczęli składać zlecenia kupna po osiągnięciu obszaru wysokiej płynności – w tym przypadku powyżej 9.300 USD 50-MA. Ostatecznie, tacy traderzy zazwyczaj likwidują swoje pozycje i do tej pory wydaje się, że realizacja była udana.

W momencie sporządzania niniejszego opracowania Bitcoin znajduje się blisko głównej linii wsparcia, która wynosi 9.000 dolarów. Jest to również poziom psychologiczny, który ostatnio kilkakrotnie zdołał utrzymać cenę aktywa powyżej tej linii.

Jeśli BTC ponownie stanie się byczy, będzie musiał ponownie pokonać 9.300 dolarów oporu, a następnie 9.500 dolarów i 9.800 dolarów, w przypadku szczególnie zdecydowanego biegu.

Ty też możesz lubić:
Bitcoin Tests $9,500, Altcoins Dominance On The Rise. Alt-Season? Thursday Market Watch
Bitcoin Fails to Break $9,400 Pomimo NASDAQ’s New ATH: Wtorek Watch Price Watch
Bitcoin zyskuje 350 dolarów w ciągu dnia jako futures na akcje w Green: Poniedziałkowy zegarek cenowy

W ślad za giełdami

Czy jest to manipulacja cenami, czy też inny przykład zwiększonej korelacji z rynkami akcji, nie jest to jasne. Niemniej jednak, kiedy Bitcoin spadł o 3%, nieco podobnie stało się z indeksem Dow Jones. DJI spadł z dziennego haju 26 100 do 25 545 w pewnym momencie, po czym nieznacznie wzrósł do 25 700.

Wczoraj indeks S&P 500 również przeszedł negatywną spiralę z 3.180 do najniższego dziennego poziomu 3.116, ale udało mu się zamknąć na poziomie 3.152. Z drugiej strony, Nasdaq zamknął się z nieznacznym wzrostem o 0,5%, mimo że również zanurkował w ciągu dnia.

Te niekorzystne zmiany nastąpiły przede wszystkim po wieściach z Florydy, wskazujących na wzrost liczby zgonów spowodowanych przez koronaawirusy. Wywarło to również wpływ na zapasy w UE, ponieważ łączna wartość Stoxx 600 zmniejszyła się o prawie 1%, podczas gdy londyńska FTSE 100 spadła o 1,7%.

Altcoins Retrace
Rynek altcoin miał kilka kolejnych pozytywnych dni z rzędu, odnotowując imponujące dwucyfrowe wzrosty. Szczególnie godne uwagi były żetony DeFi, napędzające najnowszy trend w przestrzeni kryptokurwalutowej.

Nie były one jednak w stanie utrzymać rozmachu, a większość altcoinów jest dziś w kolorze czerwonym. Ethereum i Ripple obsuwają się o około 3%, odpowiednio do 238 i 0,197 dolarów.

Przegląd rynku kryptokurwalutowego. Źródło: coin360.com
Litecoin’s nosedive jest podobny, a LTC jest teraz poniżej 44 dolarów. Spadek cen Tezosa jest dość znaczny, o prawie 5% do 2,44 USD. Po zanotowaniu nowego, wszechobecnego haju w wysokości 6,51$ dwa dni temu, Chainlink wynosi teraz 5,92$. Innymi słowy, LINK spadł od tego czasu o 9,3%.

Pomimo tankowania altcoinów, Bitcoin nie mógł wykorzystać tego ruchu, a jego dominacja na rynku utrzymuje się poniżej 63%.

Coinbase sagt, dass 60% seiner Bitcoin-Käufer in Altmünzen investieren

Major Cryptoasset Exchange Coinbase behauptet, dass, obwohl die meisten seiner Benutzer anfänglich Bitcoin (BTC) bevorzugen, die überwiegende Mehrheit auch Altmünzen und andere digitale Vermögenswerte tauschen.

Die Mischung macht´s

In einem Blogbeitrag behauptete die Plattform,

„Von den Kunden mit mindestens fünf Käufen beginnen 60% mit Bitcoin, aber nur 24% halten sich ausschließlich an BTC“.

Das bedeutet, dass 60% der BTC-Käufer auf Coinbase schließlich in Altmünzen einsteigen.

Bitcoin ebnet den Weg für andere Cryptowährungen

Insgesamt behauptet sie, dass „mehr als drei Viertel“ ihrer Kunden „schließlich andere Vermögenswerte kaufen“ – nämlich Altcoins. Darüber hinaus gibt Coinbase an, dass seine Kunden „Nicht-BTC-Vermögenswerte zu einer etwa 3% höheren Rate handeln, als ihre relative Marktkapitalisierung vermuten ließe“.

Dominanz unangefochten

Die Dominanz von Bitcoin bei der Marktkapitalisierung (heute fast 67%) ist seit seiner Gründung nahezu unangefochten, aber die Behauptungen von Coinbase scheinen darauf hinzudeuten, dass BTC für einige Leute ein Tor zu weiteren Investitionen ist, wobei Altcoins immer beliebter werden.

Der Autor des Blogs schrieb, dass Coinbase „einen Trend sieht, bei dem Bullenmärkte eine zunehmende Anziehungskraft unter den alternativen Anlagen zeigen“.

Dies könne aus verschiedenen Gründen geschehen, meinte die Börse, „aber einer davon ist weitgehend psychologischer Natur“.

Der Autor erklärte,

„Wenn die Menschen ein gutes Gefühl für ihre anfänglichen Krypto-Investitionen (in Bitcoin) haben, verzweigen sie sich auf die Suche nach anderen möglichen kategorischen Gewinnern (wie beim Bull Run 2017 deutlich wurde).

Bitcoin bleibt jedoch für die meisten Investoren das Sicherheitsnetz ihrer Wahl, so der Autor, der hinzufügte, dass „auch das Gegenteil möglich ist, denn wenn die Preise fallen und die Angst den Markt erfasst (2018-2019), hat eine Flucht in die Krypto-Sicherheit Bitcoin wieder in den Vordergrund gerückt“.

Coinbase räumte ein, dass dieser „zunehmende Trend“ zu Nicht-BTC-Vermögenswerten „zum Teil auf“ seine eigene Geschäftsstrategie zurückzuführen ist, die das „kontinuierliche Hinzufügen“ neuer Altmünzen und anderer Wertmarken beinhaltet.

Sie behauptete jedoch, dass „die Preisvolatilität das Verbraucherverhalten gegenüber Nicht-BTC-Vermögenswerten erheblich beeinflusst“.

Die Abkehr von BTC fand 2017 statt und „zeigt sich jetzt in großen Spitzen“, mit einem Anfang 2020 einsetzenden Trend hin zu Ethereum (ETH), Tezos (XTZ) und Chainlink (LINK).

Der Autor schloss mit einem poetischen Schlusswort,

„Bitcoin ist König und wird wahrscheinlich noch lange König bleiben. Aber sie ebnet auch den Weg für die Blüte von tausend Blumen“.